Stay-At-Home Moms And The Restaurant Industry
As many of you who surf popular food websites know, Advertising Age ran a story on Monday about how the fact that more moms are opting out of the workforce and choosing to stay home would affect the restaurant and supermarket businesses. Here's a brief excerpt to get you all caught up:
The decades-long rise of women in the work force -- and the related rise of meals bought from restaurants -- has ground to halt and begun to reverse since the turn of the millennium. The numbers have gotten little attention, and they fly in the face of conventional wisdom, but their ramifications are huge for restaurant, supermarket and food marketers.Women's participation rate in the paid U.S. labor force topped out at just above 60% in 1999 and again in 2001 but has fallen since then, according to the Labor Department. Restaurant meals, fueled for decades by the migration of moms to the work force, also topped out at 211 per person per year in 2001 according to NPD and likewise have been bouncing lower since, hitting 207 this year.
For restaurants, it means an end to a demographic gold mine that fed decades of growth. For supermarkets, it means a reversal of a trend that fueled decades of decline and may even help savvier operators gain an edge in their long-losing battle against Wal-Mart. And for package-food companies, the trends offer a chance to gain ground on restaurants for the first time in decades.
We read this with a bit of skepticism — we don't doubt the numbers of women opting out of the workforce, but we do doubt the premise that restaurants will be hugely affected by this. It seems Charles Passy agrees with us; he blogged his reaction yesterday afternoon:
While I have no doubt that the number of women in the workforce exerts some influence on restaurant-dining habits, I doubt it’s the key thing. For starters, the last decade or so has seen significant growth in the cooking culture — just look at the Food Network overall and Rachael Ray and her 30-minute meal shows and books in particular. That surely has gotten many more people in the kitchen.
Precisely. We can't stand Rachael Ray, but we do concede that she has gotten lots more people into the kitchen, and that's a good thing. Well, unless you're a restaurant owner. So blame her for getting everyone back into the kitchen and eating at home more.
But we also think that in the end, this isn't going to take a huge chunk out of the restaurant business. We think that this renewed interest in all things culinary doesn't just apply to the home kitchen; restaurants are hot too. And though sales may dip a bit, we're not returning to the 1950s, when mom made almost every meal and eating out was a special treat. Dining out is so much more a part of everyday life, and we, at least those of us in urban areas, have become too accustomed to the variety that restaurants provide; mom can't be expected to master every cuisine. In the long run, the restaurant business is going to be just fine.
More Moms Staying (and Eating) at Home [Advertising Age]
A Restaurant Owner's Worst Nightmare? [The Hungry Man]
